Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland     

Erik Rüttener  Juan José Egozcue  Dieter Mayer-Rosa  Stephan Mueller 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):165-178

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.  相似文献   

The GEM project: An international collaboration to survey galactic radiation emission     

S. Torres  V. Cañon  R. Casas  A. Umaña  C. Tello  T. Villela  M. Bersanelli  M. Bensadoun  G. De Amici  M. Limon  G. Smoot  C. Witebsky 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1996,240(2):225-234

The GEM (Galactic Emission Mapping) project is an international collaboration established with the aim of surveying the full sky at long wavelengths with a multi-frequency radio telescope. A total of 745 hours of observation at 408 MHz were completed from an Equatorial site in Colombia. The observations cover the celestial band 0 ^h <<24 ^h , and –24° 22<<+35° 37. Preliminary results of this partial survey will be discussed. A review of the instrumental setup and a 10° resolution sky map at 408 MHz is presented.Presented by S. Torres at the UN/ESA Workshop on Basic Space Sciences: From Small Telescopes to Space Missions, Colombo, Sri Lanka 11–14 January 1996  相似文献   

Red dust rain within the Spanish Mediterranean area     

José Quereda Sala  Jorge Olcina Cantos  Enrique Montón Chiva 《Climatic change》1996,32(2):215-228

Dust rain belongs to the climatological conditions of the Iberian Peninsula's Mediterranean seaboard. Traditionally known as muddy' or bloody rains, red dust rain has become a topical issue as a result of more frequent rainfall of this kind in recent years. In spite of the difficulties that studying this phenomenon involves, owing to the lack of systematically kept records at meteorological observatories, details are provided of the high frequency of such phenomena within the Spanish Mediterranean area, using records from other phenological sources. The study analyzes the chemical composition of red dust rain and the atmospheric factors giving rise to such phenomena. Whether there is a relationship betwen the higher frequency of dust rain and possible changes in global atmospheric circulation is as yet unclear.  相似文献   

Dynamics of the plasmasphere in the dusk sector as observed in the outer ionosphere     

J. Bošková  F. Jiříček  J. Šmilauer  P. Tříska 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1994,38(1):82-92

Summary Direct measurements of the thermal plasma parameters in the topside ionosphere reveal variations of the plasmasphere boundary in the dusk sector. The ACTIVE satellite's near-polar orbits at altitudes of 500 – 1800 km around winter solstice 1989 were used to study the bulge region of the plasmasphere during intervals with different levels of geomagnetic agitation. The narrow, sharply defined trough in electron concentration corresponding to the plasmapause under quiet conditions situated at L = 6 – 7 moved to lower L-values with increasing geomagnetic activity. This narrow trough can be found in all main ion constituents. During periods of moderate geomagnetic activity, following the onset of a weak magnetic storm, a portion of the plasmaspheric bulge region was separated from the main plasmaspheric body. This can be seen in the outer ionosphere as an inner narrow trough at lower L-value. Troughs in light ions need no longer coincide with this in electron concentration. He⁺ is the most sensitive constituent reflecting the dusk sector plasmaspheric situation at this altitude.Dedicated to the Memory of Professor Karel P  相似文献   

Paleogeothermal gradient in the boskovice furrow     

Jan Šafanda  Lubomír Malý 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1994,38(1):37-45

Summary A coalification data set from the first seam of the Rosice-Oslavany coal district in the Boskovice furrow was used to estimate the temperature gradient prevailing within the furrow during Autunian sedimentation. An appreciable scatter of the data reflects the complicated history of the sedimentary region. The northern part of the district displays a higher degree of coalification. The results of the evaluation suggest that the region ceased to subside in the upper Autunian, and that the extent of the post-Autunian erosion does not exceed 500 metres. This version of the burial history, which is consistent with geological data, yields a temperature paleogradient of 76 mK/m for the northern part and of 72 mK/m for the southern part of the district. The gradients estimated are higher than those prevailing during the Carboniferous sedimentation in the Central Bohemian Basin (45 – 53 mK/m), lower than values found for the Ostrava Formation in the Upper Silesian Basin during its Namurian A sedimentation (about 95 mK/m), but comparable with values evaluated for the Karviná Formation of the same basin deposited during the Namurian B - C and Westphalian A (60 – 77 mK/m).Dedicated to the Memory of Professor Karel P  相似文献   

Behavioural-geographical aspects of environmental quality     

Vladimír Ira  Daniel Kollár 《GeoJournal》1994,32(3):221-224

The behavioural approach in human geography accentuates the view of quality of the environment through man and his value orientations. The quality of environment from the point of view of human experience raises behavioural-geographical questions that are the core of the presented topic. Aspects of environmental imaginations and sensations as well as human value system are presented as variables affecting the structure of the perceived environment and human spatial behaviour. In this context, the authors present results of two behavioural studies that correspond to new models of man and environment from the viewpoint of a behavioural approach. The suggested humanistic approach in behavioural geography emphasizes above all the emotional aspect of the relationship between man and environment, which through environmental values, spatial sensations, and meanings, leads to human spatial behaviour.  相似文献   

About the specification of erosion flux for soft stratified cohesive sediments     

Georges Chapalain  Y. Peter Sheng  André T. Temperville 《Mathematical Geology》1994,26(6):651-676

The present paper deals with the specification of bed erosion flux that accounts for the effects of sediment-induced stratification in the water column. Owing to difficulties in measuring the bed shear stress _b and the erosive shear strength _s, we suggest a series of methods that combine laboratory and numerical experiments. A simplified turbulent transport model that includes these effects helps to quantify _b and _s. Focusing on soft stratified beds, the present study considers erosion rate formulas of the form =_f exp {[T_b-T_s]} where is a model constant (=1 for Gularte's (1978) formula and =1/2 for Parchure's (1984) formula). First, the bed erosive strength profile _s(Z) is adjusted by forcing the turbulent transport model with measured erosion rates. Second, three procedures are suggested to determine the erosion rate formula coefficients _f and : a global procedure and two different layer-by-layer procedures. Each procedure is applied to an erosion experiment conducted in a rotating annular flume by Villaret and Paulic (1986). The use of the layer-by-layer procedure based on a least squares fitting technique provides a closer fit than the global procedure. The present study points out the complementarity of experimental and numerical approaches and also suggests possible improvements in laboratory test procedures.  相似文献   

Blind prediction of the site effects at Ashigara Valley,Japan, and its comparison with reality     

J. Zahradník  P. Moczo  F. Hron 《Natural Hazards》1994,10(1-2):149-170

Weak and strong ground motions were numerically predicted for three stations of the Ashigara Valley test site. The prediction was based on the records from a rock-outcrop station, one weak-motion record from a surface-sediments station, and the standard geotechnical model. The data were provided by the Japanese Working Group on the Effects of Surface Geology as a part of an international experiment. The finite-difference method for SH waves in a 2-D linear viscoelastic medium (a causalQ model) was employed.Comparison with the real records shows that at two stations the predictions fit better than at the third one. Strangely, the two better predictions were for stations situated at larger distances from the reference rock station (one station was on the surface, the other in a borehole). The strong ground motion (the peak acceleration of about 200 cm s^–2) was not predicted qualitatively worse than the weak motion (8 cm s^–2). A less sophisticated second prediction (not submitted during the experiment), in which we did not attempt to fit the available weak-motion record at the sedimentary station, agrees with the reality significantly better.  相似文献   

Geomagnetic activity as a possible cause of changes in the middle atmosphere and troposphere; observations made in Prague in the years 1932–1987     

Josef Bochníček  Josef Pýcha 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1994,38(1):103-107

Summary A possible relation between the 10-day, 1-month, and 2-month geomagnetic as well as solar activity, characterized by Kp and Wolf's number R, and temperatures measured at the Prague-Klementinum meteorological station in January–February of the years 1932–1987 was sought. It was found that:1) Kp correlates with the temperature in Prague better than Wolf's number R.2) If the QBO phase is taken into account, the correlations improve.3) Even if the correlations improves with increasing length of the subintervals into which the individual winter periods (January-February) were derived, their statistical significance declines.  相似文献   

Geochemistry and origin of the Proterozoic ultrapotassic rocks of the Churchill Province,Canada     

Dr. T. D. Peterson  Dr. S. Esperança  Dr. A. N. LeCheminant 《Mineralogy and Petrology》1994,51(2-4):251-276

Summary Early Proterozoic ultrapotassic dikes, lava flows, and pyroclastic rocks of the Christopher Island Formation (CIF) erupted throughout an area 600 × 300 km within the Churchill Province of the Canadian Shield at 1.84 Ga. The rocks range from mafic lamprophyres (mg # 60; SiO₂ 47–54%, mean K₂O/Na₂O > 4) with phenocrysts of phlogopite + diopside + apatite ± olivine ± magnetite, to phenocryst-poor felsic rocks and sanidine porphyries (SiO₂55–69%). All samples have high incompatible element contents and display large depletions of high field strength elements relative to K, Rb, Sr, Ba, and Th. The CIF has geochemical and petrographic characteristics of both minettes and lamproites, but overall most closely resembles young Mediterranean lamproites. Felsic rocks of the CIF were produced by crystal fractionation and crustal contamination of mafic ultrapotassic magma, and include both high-silica lamproites strongly enriched in Zr, U, and Th, and weakly potassic to sodic rocks of trachytic composition. Flows and feeder dikes have relatively homogeneous _{Nd, 1840 Ma} (–6 to –11) but highly variable ES., 1840 Ma (–40 to + 100); samples classified as lamproites have higher average _Sr. Dike samples have highly variable present-day Pb isotope compositions, ranging from moderately to strongly nonradiogenic. Geochemical and isotopic data are consistent with contributions from depleted Archean lithospheric mantle, and OIB-type convecting mantle, both metasomatized by subduction-related processes during the Early Proterozoic. The lithospheric mantle probably contained Archean enriched domains as well. Proterozoic enrichment may have accompanied shallow underplating of subducted oceanic lithosphere beneath the Churchill Province during amalgamation of the Laurentian supercontinent. There are strong analogies in isotopic composition, and interpreted source region history, between the CIF and lamproites and minettes of the Wyoming Province and western Greenland, which suggest the existence of a Laurentian ultrapotassic superprovince.

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Geochemie und Entstehung der Proterozoischen ultrapotassischen Gesteine der Churchill Provinz, Kanada

Zusammenfassung Altproterozoische, ultrapotassische Gänge, Lavaströme und pyroklastische Gesteine der Christopher Island Formation (CIF), eruptierten in einem Gebiet von 600 × 300 km in der Churchill Provinz des Kanadischen Schildes vor 1.84 Ga. Die Zusammensetzung dieser Gesteine variiert von mafischen Lamprophyren (mg > 60; SiO₂ = 47–54%, durchschnittliches K₂O/Na₂O > 4) mit Phänokristallent von Phlogopit + Diopsid + Apatit + Olivin + Magnetit, bis zu phänokristallarmen felsischen Gesteinen und Sanidinporphyren (SiO₂ = 55–69%). Alle Proben zeigen hohe Gehalte an inkompatiblen Elementen und zeigen beträchtliche Verarmung an high field strength Elementen relativ zu K, Rb, Sr, Ba und Th. Die CIF hat geochemische und petrographische Eigenschaften sowohl von Minetten wie von Lamproiten, aber im allgemeinen ähnelt sie am stärksten jungen mediterranen Lamproiten. Felsische Gesteine der CIF wurden durch Fraktionierung und Krustenkontamination aus mafischen ultrapotassischen Magmen gebildet. Letztere umfassen sowohl siliziumreiche Lamproite, die deutlich an Zr, U und Th angereichert sind und schwach potassische bis sodische Gesteine von trachytischer Zusammensetzung. Lavenergüsse und zufuhrgänge zeigent ein relativ homogenes _{Nd, 1840 Ma} (–6 bis –11) aber ein sehr variables _{Sr, 1840 Ma} (-40 bis + 100); Proben die als Lamproite klassifiziert wurden, zeigent höhere durchschnittliche _Sr-Werte. Proben von Gängen haben sehr variable Bleiisotopen-Zusammensetzungen, die von mäßig bis stark nichtradiogen variieren. Geochemische und Isotopendaten weisen auf Beiträge aus verarmtem archaischen lithosphärischen Mantel und aus konvektierendem OIB-Typ Mantel hin, die beide während des Alproterozoikums durch Subduktions-Vorgänge metasomatisiert wurden. Der lithosphärische Mantel enthielt wahrscheinlich auch angereicherte archaische Domänen. Proterozoische Anreicherungsvorgänge dürften seichtes Underplating subduzierter ozeanischer Lithosphäre unter der Churchill Provinz während der Amalgamation des laurentischen Superkontinentes begleitet haben. Es gibt starke Analogien in der Isotopenzusammensetzung und in der interpretierten Geschichte der Ursprungsregion, zwischen den CIF und Lamproiten und Minetten der Wyoming Provinz, und des westlichen Grönland. Diese weisen auf die Existenz einer laurentischen ultrapotassischen Superprovinz hin.

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With 7 Figures  相似文献